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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However the latest competition is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given following his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still